Migration: Global causes, European challenges, national and regional economic outcomes

Abstract

Starting with the assumption that migration will be a long-term issue, the paper offers five global causes of this phenomenon: military conflicts with a geostrategic background, diminishing resources, countries remaining in the first demographic transition, climate change, and access to information and mobility. The introduction provides a short interim summary of the recent European debate. The first section then illustrates the economic consequences of various scenarios, based on the German example. The main focus of the paper is the analysis of regional migration outcomes for growing metropolitan regions. During the last decades, these regions where faced by suburbanization, growing internal competition for inhabitants, and an unequal distribution of infrastructure burdens and public debt. Without regional cooperation, migration will be a driving force for accelerated conflicts. This pessimistic outlookseems to be valid if strategies for housing do not reflect the local labour market conditions and manpower demand (Bronx Scenario or Banlieue Scenario). On the other hand, migration can be an advantage for both an aging metropolitan core and an aging region in general. This optimistic outlook implies an integrated strategy for housing, education, infrastructure, and labour market (Vancouver or Ruhr Scenario). The strategy offers a win-win perspective for the problems of migrant integration.