Uniwersyteckie Czasopisma NaukoweThe application of survival analysis in the study of export and import duration – first insights from intermediaries in Poland
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26881/ibage.2022.41.06Słowa kluczowe:
firm survival, export and import duration, duration of trade relationships, intermediaries in foreign trade, PolandAbstrakt
Identifying the duration of trade can be crucial to stabilize trade relations in a globalized world economy and common shocks of various types. We use non-parametric survival techniques (Kaplan Meier function) to analyse at the firm-level data from the trade relations between Polish intermediaries and their foreign partners from 2007 to 2015. In this paper, we also aim to fill a gap in the literature by analysing differences in survival curves for exporters and importers (which is far less common). Higher survival rates are common for intermediaries with high initial trade volumes, as well as firms trading with EU countries. The differences in duration curves for importers and exporters are statistically significant; import activities with higher trade volumes are marked by greater relationship stability. We also find that both product and geographic diversification increase the probability of survival in foreign markets. The trade duration is negatively affected by strong intermediary relationships with partners in CIS and NAFTA countries.
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