Using Pestle Analysis to Forecast the Fiscal Vulnerability of Real Estate Taxation in Crisis Scenarios

Abstract

The article explores the fiscal consequences of real estate price declines in the context of reduced revenues for national and local budgets. It focuses on the increasing vulnerability of tax systems to external factors that affect both the real estate market and the tax base. The hypothesis assumes that a modified PESTLE model serves as an effective analytical tool for shaping fiscal policy, as it allows forecasting the vulnerability of real estate taxation systems in crises and adapting tax instruments to the dynamics of external shocks. The aim of the research is to identify the causes of declining real estate prices, assess their fiscal impact, and formulate recommendations for strengthening tax policy resilience. The methodology combines a review of real estate taxation mechanisms with an adapted PESTLE analysis and a comparative case study of the US, Spain, China, and Ukraine. The findings confirm the hypothesis: macroeconomic factors, prolonged effects of crisis shocks, and the limited resilience of local budgets are key manifestations of fiscal vulnerability, which can be mitigated through the use of the modified PESTLE model in designing adaptive tax policy. The article offers practical tools such as regular property revaluation, flexible rate regulation, and compensation funds. Its originality lies in the application of a multi-level risk assessment model and the identification of common patterns of fiscal vulnerability during market disruption.