Models of time series with seasonal fluctuations in the forecasting of passenger traffic in air transport based on the study of Wrocław Airport

Abstract

Forecasting is one of the measure used in the planning process. It enables effective management of infrastructure and available human resources, including at airports. However, improper prediction of future trends may have economic consequences for the company. Therefore, the aim of the study is to determine forecasts of the number of passengers and air operations characterized by the smallest deviations from the real values, on the example of Wrocław Airport. For the needs of the study, an analysis of econometric models of seasonal fluctuations was carried out, as well as the method of seasonality indicators and homologous period trends. The methods were selected due to the low level of forecast error using expired forecasts for 2017. The study was completed with the choice of a method generating forecasts burdened with the smallest error.