Academic Scientific JournalsModeling of Eucheuma cottonii habitat suitability in relation to upwelling and the Indian Ocean Dipole in Cilacap and Kebumen Coastal Waters, Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26881/oahs-2026.1.12Keywords:
Indian Ocean Dipole, Eucheuma cottonii, upwelling, habitat suitability, modelingAbstract
This study examines the influence of climate variability associated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the habitat suitability of E. cottonii cultivation in the coastal waters of Cilacap and Kebumen, southern Java. A Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model was developed using a Boolean threshold implemented in Python. Environmental parameters included sea surface temperature (SST), salinity, nitrate concentration, surface current velocity, and bathymetry. The analysis focused on three representative years reflecting different climate conditions: negative IOD (2016), normal conditions (2018), and positive IOD (2019) from June–September. Results indicate that seasonal upwelling in southern Java tends to reduce habitat suitability for E. cottonii. During normal and positive IOD conditions, stronger upwelling from July to September corresponded with lower HSI values compared with June. In contrast, during the negative IOD phase, when upwelling signals were weaker, HSI values remained relatively stable. Kruskal–Wallis results indicate significant differences in SST, salinity, and nitrate among climate conditions, whereas surface currents show no significant variation. Sensitivity analysis suggests that bathymetry contributes more strongly to habitat suitability, while other parameters vary under different IOD conditions. Because the analysis is based on only three representative years, the results should be interpreted as exploratory rather than a generalized climatic pattern.
Downloads
References
Arbit, N. I. S., Lestari, D., Erwin, E., Syamsudin, F., Mannan, A., & Thabrani, M. (2024). Suitability water quality parameters for Eucheuma cottonii culture at Majene Waters. DEPIK Учредители: Institute of Postgraduate Studies, Syiah Kuala University, 13(2), 192-200. https://doi.org/10.13170/depik.13.2.35688
Aris, M., Muchdar, F., & Labenua, R. (2021). Study of seaweed Kappaphycus alvarezii explants growth in the different salinity concentrations. Jurnal Ilmiah Perikanan Dan Kelautan, 13(1), 97-105. https://doi.org/10.20473/jipk.v13i1.19842
Arsenault, S., Linner, R., & Chen, Y. (2025). Evaluating effects of data quality and variable weighting on habitat suitability modelling. Ecological Informatics, 87, Article 103086. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2025.103086
Awo, F. M., Rouault, M., Ostrowski, M., Tomety, F. S., Da‐Allada, C. Y., & Jouanno, J. (2022). Seasonal cycle of sea surface salinity in the Angola upwelling system. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 127(7), Article e2022JC018518. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JC018518
Bertelli, C. M., Stokes, H. J., Bull, J. C., & Unsworth, R. K. F. (2022). The use of habitat suitability modelling for seagrass: A review. Frontiers in Marine Science, 9, Article 997831. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2022.997831
Budiman, A. S., Bengen, D. G., Nurjaya, I. W., Arifin, Z., & Ismail, M. F. A. (2022). A comparison of the three upwelling indices in the South Java sea shelf. Chiang Mai University Journal of Natural Sciences, 21(3), Article e2022044. https://doi.org/10.12982/CMUJNS.2022.044
Casadebaig, P., Gauffreteau, A., Landré, A., Langlade, N. B., Mestries, E., Sarron, J., Trépos, R., Vincourt, P., & Debaeke, P. (2022). Optimized cultivar deployment improves the efficiency and stability of sunflower crop production at national scale. Theoretical and Applied Genetics, 135(11), 4049–4063. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.09.21.306076
Chen, S., Cha, J., Qiu, F., Jing, C., Qiu, Y., & Xu, J. (2022). Sea surface salinity anomaly in the bay of Bengal during the 2010 extremely negative IOD event. Remote Sensing, 14(24), Article 6242. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14246242
Damis, D., & Saenong, M. (2020). Analisis kualitas air dalam penentuan lokasi budidaya rumput laut (Eucheuma cottonii) di kawasan Teluk Parepare. Journal of Indonesian Tropical Fisheries, 3(2), 205–213. https://doi.org/10.33096/joint-fish.v3i2.79
Gokturk, E. N., Bartlett, B. S., Erisman, B., Heyman, W., & Asch, R. G. (2022). Loss of suitable ocean habitat and phenological shifts among grouper and snapper spawning aggregations in the Greater Caribbean under climate change. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 699, 91–115. https://doi.org/10.3354/meps14165
Gu, H., & Mao, Y. (2024). Multi-timescale characteristics of southwestern Australia nearshore surface current and its response to ENSO revealed by high-frequency radar. Remote Sensing, 16(1), Article 209. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs16010209
Hafiz, M., Widagdo, S., & Prasita, V. D. (2024). Eksistensi upwelling Pada Fase Netral di Perairan Selatan Jawa. J-Tropimar, 6(1), 1–10. https://doi.org/10.30649/jrkt.v6i1.77
Horii, T., Ueki, I., Siswanto, E., & Iskandar, I. (2023). Longterm shift and recent early onset of chlorophyll-a bloom and coastal upwelling along the southern coast of Java. Frontiers in Climate, 5, Article 1050790. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1050790
Huang, K., Wang, D., Zu, T., & Vithana, M. (2025). IOD-driven seesaw mode of upper-ocean salinity variability in the central and eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Environmental Research Letters, 20(10), Article 104045. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae0056
Hurd, C. L., Harrison, P. J., Bischof, K., & Lobban, C. S. (2014). Seaweed ecology and physiology. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139192637.007
Insan, K., Patty, W., Manembu, I. S., Djamaluddin, R., Kusen, D. J., Paulus, J. J. H., Sumilat, D. A., & Rogi, J. E. X. (2025). Variability of oceanographic parameters during and after tropical cyclone Kammuri in Talaud Islands waters. Jurnal Pesisir Dan Laut Tropis, 13(2), 188–200. https://doi.org/10.35800/jplt.13.2.2025.62642
Iskandar, I., Lestari, D. O., Saputra, A. D., Setiawan, R. Y., Wirasatriya, A., Susanto, R. D., Mardiansyah, W., Irfan, M., Rozirwan, R., & Setiawan, J. D. (2022). Extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole in 2019 and its impact on Indonesia. Sustainability, 14(22), Article 15155. https://doi.org/10.3390/su142215155
Koropitan, A. F., Kholilullah, I., & Yusfiandayani, R. (2021). Modeling mackerel tuna (Euthynnus affinis) habitat in southern coast of Java: Influence of seasonal upwelling and negative IOD. HAYATI Journal of Biosciences, 28(4), 271–285. https://doi.org/10.4308/hjb.28.4.271-285
Kroth, F., Kuhwald, K., Schneider, T., & Oppelt, N. (2025). Habitat suitability and species distribution modelling in lake macrophyte research: A systematic review. Ecological Indicators, 179, Article 114141. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2025.114141
Lan, K.-W., Evans, K., & Lee, M.-A. (2013). Effects of climate variability on the distribution and fishing conditions of yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) in the western Indian Ocean. Climatic Change, 119(1), 63–77. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-012-0637-8
Lan, K.-W., Lee, M.-A., Wang, S.-P., & Chen, Z.-Y. (2015). Environmental variations on swordfish (Xiphias gladius) catch rates in the Indian Ocean. Fisheries Research, 166, 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2014.08.010
Lase, P. J. R., Tuhumury, S. F., & Waas, H. J. D. (2020). Analisis Kesesuaian Lokasi Budidaya Rumput Laut (Eucheuma cottonii) dengan Menggunakan Sistem Informasi Geografis di Perairan Teluk Ambon Baguala. TRITON: Jurnal Manajemen Sumberdaya Perairan, 16(2), 77–83. https://doi.org/10.30598/TRITONvol16issue2page77-83
Lestari, D. A., Susiloningtyas, D., & Handayani, T. (2019). Potential Region for development of seaweed genus Eucheuma cottonii based on ENSO variability in east coast of Tarakan Island, Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 284(1), Article 12030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/284/1/012030
Li, H., Guo, P., Liu, G., Suo, A., Zhou, W., Yue, W., Jiao, M., & Zhang, L. (2024). Numerical study of the upwelling and downwelling effects of artificial reefs along tidal cycles in the Pearl River Estuary. Journal of Environmental Management, 365, Article 121486. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2024.121486
Manurung, D. F., Rosmasita, R., Windarti, W., Ghazali, T. M., & Sibuea, N. U. S. (2021). Suitability of seaweed culture (Eucheuma cottonii) in the Sorkam Barat Sub-District, Tapanuli Tengah Indonesia. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 934(1), Article 12012. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/934/1/012012
Maysarah, S., Sartimbul, A., & Pranowo, W. S. (2022). Analisis Variabilitas Nitrat dalam Hubungan dengan El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dan Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) di Perairan Selat Bali dan Sekitarnya: Analysis of variability of nitrate in corellation with El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the Bali Strait and surroundings. Jurnal Hidropilar, 8(2), 91–100. https://doi.org/10.37875/hidropilar.v8i2.251
Napitupulu, G. (2025). Spatiotemporal variability of coastal upwelling in response to monsoonal forcing and semienclosed basins in the indonesian and adjacent seas. Ocean Dynamics, 75(7), 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10236-025-01706-2
Numberi, Y., Budi, S., & Salam, S. (2020). Analisis oseanografi dalam mendukung budidaya rumput laut (Eucheuma cottonii) di Teluk Sarawandori Distrik Kosiwo Yapen-Papua. Urban and Regional Studies Journal, 2(2), 71–75. https://doi.org/10.35965/ursj.v2i2.569
Oktaviani, D., Handoyo, G., Helmi, M., Kunarso, K., & Wirasatriya, A. (2021). Karakteristik upwelling pada Periode Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Positif di Perairan Selatan Jawa Barat. Indonesian Journal of Oceanography, 3(4), 354–361. https://doi.org/10.14710/ijoce.v3i4.12081
Rachman, H. A., Setiawati, M. D., Hidayah, Z., Syah, A. F., Nandika, M. R., Lumban-Gaol, J., As-syakur, A. R., & Syamsudin, F. (2024). Dynamic of upwelling variability in southern Indonesia region revealed from satellite data: Role of ENSO and IOD. Journal of Sea Research, 202, Article 102543. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seares.2024.102543
Rochmatika, E., & Bahtiar, S. A. (2023). The effect of upwelling on water productivity based on chlorophyll-a parameters in Sumatra and Java Waters (Edge of Jakarta Bay, South Lampung and South Coast of Central Java). Proceeding International Conference on Religion, Science and Education, 2(2023), 945–949.
Rusdi, W. A. (2018). Analysis of suitability and carrying capacity of waters for seaweed (Eucheuma cottonii) cultivation business in Mandar Bay, West Sulawesi of Indonesia. Russian Journal of Agricultural and Socio-Economic Sciences, 82(10), 295–300. https://doi.org/10.18551/rjoas.2018-10.34
Rustin, S. N., & Arifin, S. (2026). A review of Kruskal-Wallis test applications in scientific research. Journal of Actuarial, Finance and Risk Management, 4(2), 36–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.33021/jafrm.v4i2.6301.g2413
Saensouk, P., Saensouk, S., Thuy, M. T. P., Taesuk, N., Ruannakarn, P., Phimpha, S., & Boonma, T. (2025). Diversity and its implications of curcuma Subgenus Hitcheniopsis (Zingiberaceae) with a new record for Vietnam. Diversity, 17(11), Article 778. https://doi.org/10.3390/d17110778
Salihin, A., Muhiddin, A. H., & Yasir, I. (2019). Evaluation study of Eucheuma cottonii species of seaweed cultivation based on oceanographic parameters in Pasiea, Bonegunu Subdistrict, North Buton District. Jurnal Ilmu Kelautan SPERMONDE, 5(2), 51–56. https://doi.org/10.20956/jiks.v5i2.8930
St Madina, M., Syafiuddin, S., Samawi, M. F., Muhiddin, A. H., & Hatta, M. (2022). Water quality of seaweed cultivation (Eucheuma cottonii) location in Old Takalar, Mappakasunggu District, Takalar Regency. Jurnal Ilmu Kelautan SPERMONDE, 8(2), 28–36. https://doi.org/10.20956/jiks.v8i2.19770
Stephenson, F., Rowden, A. A., Anderson, O. F., Pitcher, C. R., Pinkerton, M. H., Petersen, G., & Bowden, D. A. (2021). Presence-only habitat suitability models for vulnerable marine ecosystem indicator taxa in the South Pacific have reached their predictive limit. ICES Journal of Marine Science, 78(8), 2830–2843. https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsab162
Stuart, C. E., Wedding, L. M., Pittman, S. J., & Green, S. J. (2021). Habitat suitability modeling to inform seascape connectivity conservation and management. Diversity, 13(10), Article 465. https://doi.org/10.3390/d13100465
Sun, Y., Zhang, H., Jiang, K., Xiang, D., Shi, Y., Huang, S., Li, Y., & Han, H. (2024). Simulating the changes of the habitats suitability of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the high seas of the North Pacific Ocean using ensemble models under medium to long-term future climate scenarios. Marine Pollution Bulletin, 207, Article 116873. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2024.116873
Suresh, N., Dubey, M., Hardas, M. S., Kumar, M. A., Narsingan, L. S., & Karpagavalli, S. (2025). Modeling species distribution and habitat suitability with machine learning approaches. International Journal of Environmental Sciences, 11(23s), 5353–5363. https://doi.org/10.64252/nbbcax54
Tilaar, S., Wullur, S., & Angkouw, E. D. (2025). The effect of salinity on the growth of Kappaphycus alvarezii. Jurnal Ilmiah PLATAX, 13(2), 335–340. https://doi.org/10.35800/jip.v13i2.58380
Ukhti, F., Manurug, Z. K., & Mahendra, M. D. (2021). Perbandingan Teknik boolean dengan weighted overlay Dalam Analisis Potensi Longsor di Banjarmasin. Jurnal Geosains Dan Remote Sensing, 2(1), 25–32. https://doi.org/10.23960/jgrs.2021.v2i1.53
Utama, R. Z., & Handayani, T. (2018). Suitability between ocenography and seaweed (Eucheuma cottonii) cultivation potential in Tidung Island with geographic information system (GIS). E3S Web of Conferences, 73, Article 12009. https://doi.org/10.1051/e3sconf/20187312009
Wabang, I. L., & Plaimo, P. E. (2024). Coastal resources study for the suitability of seaweed (Eucheuma cottonii) cultivation land in Pulau Lapang Waters, Pantar Barat District, Alor District. Berkala Perikanan Terubuk, 52(2), 2251–2256.
Wahyuni, S., Nursan, M., & Hidayati, A. (2023). Analysis of red algae seaweed (Eucheuma cottonii) cultivation in Jerowaru District, Lombok regency. Jurnal Biologi Tropis, 23(2), 450–455. https://doi.org/10.29303/jbt.v23i2.4878
Wang, G., Cai, W., Santoso, A., Abram, N., Ng, B., Yang, K., Geng, T., Doi, T., Du, Y., & Izumo, T. (2024). The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world. Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 5(8), 588–604. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7
Wan, G.-Z., Li, Q.-Q., Jin, L., & Chen, J. (2024). Integrated approach to predicting habitat suitability and evaluating quality variations of Notopterygium franchetii under climate change. Scientific Reports, 14(1), Article 26927. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-77824-6
Wen, L., Zhang, H., Fang, Z., & Chen, X. (2025). The effects of climate change on Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis habitats in the Northern Indian Ocean. Animals, 15(4), Article 573. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani15040573
Widagdo, S., Prasita, V. D., & Hafiz, M. (2025). Upwelling intensity during Indian Ocean Dipole period in southern waters of Java. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, 1473(1), Article 12015. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/1473/1/012015
Wijayanto, D., Bambang, A. N., Nugroho, R. A., & Kurohman, F. (2020). The impact of planting distance on productivity and profit of Eucheuma cottonii seaweed cultivation in Karimunjawa Islands, Indonesia. Aquaculture, Aquarium, Conservation & Legislation, 13(4), 2170–2179.
Wijaya, Y. J., Wisha, U. J., Rejeki, H. A., & Ismunarti, D. H. (2024). Variability of the South Java current from 1993 to 2021, and its relationship to ENSO and IOD events. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 60(1), 65–79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-023-00336-2
Wilcox, R. R. (2012). Introduction to robust estimation and hypothesis testing. Academic press. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-804733-0.00007-X
Zhang, H., Zhao, C., Wang, J., Chen, X., & Lei, L. (2025). Designing of high-performance species habitat suitability index model. Fisheries Research, 291, Article 107548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.fishres.2025.107548
