Academic Scientific JournalsTrend analysis and forecasting of the Gökırmak River streamflow (Turkey)
Keywords:
climate change, flow monitoring, forecast, river, water resources, seasonal, ARIMAAbstract
The objective of this paper is to determine the trend and to estimate the streamflow of the Gökırmak River. The possible trend of the streamflow was forecasted using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model. Time series and trend analyses were performed using monthly streamflow data for the period between 1999 and 2014. Pettitt’s change point analysis was employed to detect the time of change for historical streamflow time series. Kendall’s tau and Spearman’s rho tests were also conducted. The results of the change point analysis determined the change point as 2008. The time series analysis showed that the streamflow of the river had a decreasing trend from the past to the present. Results of the trend analysis forecasted a decreasing trend for the streamflow in the future. The decreasing trend in the streamflow may be related to climate change. This paper provides preliminary knowledge of the streamflow trend for the Gökırmak River.
Downloads
References
Alcamo, J., Moreno, J.M., Nováky, B., Bindi, M., Corobov, R. et al. (2007). Europe. In M.L. Parry, O.F. Canziani, J. Palutikof, P. van der Linden & C. Hanson (Eds.), Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability (pp. 541–580). Cambridge, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Ali, R., Kuriqi, A., Abubaker, S. & Kisi, O. (2019). Long-term trends and seasonality detection of the observed flow in Yangtze River using Mann-Kendall and Sen’s innovative trend method. Water 11(9): 1855. DOI: 10.3390/w11091855.
Anil, A.P. & Ramesh, H. (2017). Analysis of climate trend and effect of land use land cover change on Harangi streamflow, South India: a case study. Sustainable Water Resources Management 3(3): 257–267. DOI: 10.1007/s40899-017-0088-5.
Ay, M. & Kişi, Ö. (2017). Trend analysis of stream ows at some gauging stations over the Kizilirmak River. İMO Teknik Dergi 28(2): 7779–7794. DOI: 10.18400/tekderg.304034.
Ay, M., Karaca, Ö.F. & Yıldız, A.K. (2018). Comparison of MannKendall and Sen’s innovative trend tests on measured monthly flows series of some streams in Euphrates-Tigris Basin. Erciyes University Journal of Institute of Science and Technology 34(1): 78–86.
Baduna Koçyiğit, M., Akay, H. & Yanmaz, A.M. (2017). Effect of watershed partitioning on hydrologic parameters and estimation of hydrograph of an ungauged basin: a case study in Gokirmak and Kocanaz, Turkey. Arabian Journal of Geosciences 10(15): 331. DOI: 10.1007/s12517-017-3132-8.
Bahadir, M. (2011). A statistical analysis of the flow changes of Kızılırmak River. Turkish Studies-International Periodical for the Languages, Literature and History of Turkish or Turkic 6: 1339–1356.
Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. & Palutikof, J.P. (2008). Climate change and water. Geneva: IPCC Secretariat.
Blöschl, G. & Montanari, A. (2010). Climate change impacts – throwing the dice? Hydrological Processes 24(3): 374–381. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.7574.
Box, G.E.P. & Jenkins, G. (1976). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Holden Day, San Francisco.
Bozkurt, D. & Sen, O. L. (2013). Climate change impacts in the Euphrates–Tigris Basin based on different model and scenario simulations. Journal of Hydrology 480: 149–161. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.12.021.
Chang, H. (2007). Comparative streamflow characteristics in urbanizing basins in the Portland Metropolitan Area, Oregon, USA. Hydrological Processes 21(2): 211–222. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6233.
Chang, J., Wang, Y., Istanbulluoglu, E., Bai, T., Huang, Q. et al. (2014). Impact of climate change and human activities on runoff in the Weihe River Basin, China. Quaternary International 380–381: 169–179. DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2014.03.048.
Chen, C., Tian, Y., Zhang, Y-K., He, X., Yang, X. et al. (2019). Effects of agricultural activities on the temporal variations of streamflow: trends and long memory. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 33(8–9): 1553–1564. DOI: 10.1007/s00477-019-01714-x.
Cigizoglu, H.K., Bayazit, M. & Onoz, B. (2005). Trends in the maximum, mean and low flows of Turkish rivers. Journal of Hydrometeorology 6(3): 280–290. DOI: 10.1175/JHM412.1.
Dengiz, O., Özyazici, M.A. & Sağlam, M. (2015). Multi-criteria assessment and geostatistical approach for determination of rice growing suitability sites in Gokirmak catchment. Paddy and Water Environment 13(1): 1–10. DOI: 10.1007/s10333-013-0400-4.
Dinpashoh, Y., Singh, V.P., Biazar, S.M. & Kavehkar, S. (2019). Impact of climate change on streamflow timing (case study: Guilan Province). Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 138(1–2): 65–76. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-019-02810-2.
Dügel, M. & Kazanci, N. (2004). Assessment of water quality of the Büyük Menderes River (Turkey) by using ordination and classification of macroinvertebrates and environmental variables. Journal of Freshwater Ecology 19(4): 605–612. DOI: 10.1080/02705060.2004.9664741.
Durdu, Ö.F. (2010). Effects of climate change on water resources of the Büyük Menderes river basin, western Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture and Forestry 34(4): 319–332. DOI: 10.3906/tar-0909-402.
Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016a). Effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Kocabaş Stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Journal of Scientific Research and Reports 11(4): 1–11. DOI: 10.9734/JSRR/2016/28052.
Ejder, T., Kale, S., Acar, S., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016b). Restricted effects of climate change on annual streamflow of Sarıçay stream (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 5(1): 7–11.
Ercan, B., Yüce, Ş. & Yüce, M.İ. (2017). Analysis of streamflow trends in the Kızılırmak River Basin. Proceedings of IV. International Multidisciplinary Congress of Eurasia 2: 405–414.
Feng, C., Wang, H., Lu, N., Chen, T., He, H. et al. (2014). Logtransformation and its implications for data analysis. Shanghai Archives of Psychiatry 26(2): 105–109. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1002-0829.2014.02.009.
Fu, X., Shen, B., Dong, Z. & Zhang, X. (2020). Assessing the impacts of changing climate and human activities on streamflow in the Hotan River, China. Journal of Water and Climate Change 11(1): 166–177. DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2018.281.
Gao, P., Mu, X.M., Wang, F., Li, R. (2011). Changes in streamflow and sediment discharge and the response to human activities in the middle reaches of the Yellow River. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 15(1): 1–10. DOI: 10.5194/hess-15-1-2011.
George, D. & Mallery, M. (2010). SPSS for Windows Step by Step: A Simple Guide and Reference, 17.0 update (10th ed.) Boston: Pearson.
Guo, Q., Yang, Y. & Xiong, X. (2016). Using hydrologic simulation to identify contributions of climate change and human activity to runoff changes in the Kuye River Basin, China. Environmental Earth Sciences 75(5): 417. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-016-5280-7.
Helsel, D.R. & Hirsch, R.M. (2002). Statistical Methods in Water Resources Techniques of Water Resources Investigations. U.S. Geological Survey: https://pubs.usgs.gov/twri/twri4a3/pdf/twri4a3-new.pdf. Accessed 22 October 2019.
Herawati, H., Suripin & Suharyanto. (2015). Impact of climate change on streamflow in the tropical lowland of Kapuas River, West Borneo, Indonesia. Procedia Engineering 125: 185–192. DOI: 10.1016/j.proeng.2015.11.027.
Hirpa, F.A., Alfieri, L., Lees, T., Peng, J., Dyer, E. et al. (2019). Streamflow response to climate change in the Greater Horn of Africa. Climatic Change 156(3): 341–363. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02547-x.
Hirsch, R.M., Slack, J.R. & Smith, R.A. (1982). Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality analysis. Water Resources Research 18(1): 107–121.
Hisar, O., Kale, S. & Özen, Ö. (2015). Sustainability of effective use of water sources in Turkey. In W. Leal Filho & V. Sümer (Eds.), Sustainable Water Use and Management: Examples of New Approaches and Perspectives (pp. 205–227). Switzerland: Springer International Publishing.
Hu, S., Zheng, H., Wang, Z. & Yu, J. (2012). Assessing the impacts of climate variability and human activities on streamflow in the water source area of Baiyangdian Lake. Journal of Geographical Sciences 22(5): 895–905. DOI: 10.1007/s11442-012-0971-9.
Huang, X-R., Gao, L-Y., Yang, P-P. & Xi, Y-Y. (2018). Cumulative impact of dam constructions on streamflow and sediment regime in lower reaches of the Jinsha River, China. Journal of Mountain Science 15(12): 2752–2765. DOI: 10.1007/s11629-018-4924-3.
Jackson, C.R., Meister, R. & Prudhomme, C. (2011). Modelling the effects of climate change and its uncertainty on UK Chalk groundwater resources from an ensemble of global climate model projections. Journal of Hydrology 399(1–2): 12–28. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.12.028.
Jiang, S., Ren, L., Yong, B., Singh, V.P., Yang, X. et al. (2011). Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff from the Laohahe basin in northern China using three different methods. Hydrological Processes 25(16): 2492–2505. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.8002.
Kahya, E. & Kalaycı, S. (2004). Trend analysis of streamflow in Turkey. Journal of Hydrology 289(1–4): 128–144. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2003.11.006.
Kale, S. & Acarlı, D. (2019a). Spatial and temporal change monitoring in water surface area of Atikhisar Reservoir (Çanakkale, Turkey) by using remote sensing and geographic information system techniques. Alinteri Journal of Agriculture Sciences 34(1): 47–56. DOI: 10.28955/alinterizbd.574361.
Kale, S. & Acarli, D. (2019b). Shoreline change monitoring in Atikhisar Reservoir by using remote sensing and geographic information system (GIS). Fresenius Environmental Bulletin 28: 4329–4339.
Kale, S. & Sönmez, A.Y. (2018a). Trend analysis of mean monthly, seasonally and annual streamflow of Daday Stream in Kastamonu, Turkey. Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 7(2): 60–67. DOI: 10.33714/masteb.418234.
Kale, S. & Sönmez, A.Y. (2018b). Trend analysis of streamflow of Akkaya Stream (Turkey). In F. Dadaşoğlu, E. Tozlu, F. Çığ & E. Yıldırım (Eds.), Proceedings of the 1st International Conference on Food, Agriculture and Animal Sciences (pp. 33–45). Antalya, Turkey.
Kale, S. & Sönmez, A.Y. (2019a). Trend analysis for annual streamflow of Ilgaz Stream (Turkey). In Proceeding Book of the 2nd International Congress on Engineering and Life Science (pp. 631–639).
Kale, S. & Sönmez, A.Y. (2019b). Trend analysis for annual streamflow of Araç Stream (Turkey). In Proceeding Book of the 2nd International Congress on Engineering and Life Science (pp. 706–713).
Kale, S. & Sönmez, A.Y. (2019c). Trend Analysis for Streamflow of Devrekani Stream (Turkey). Review of Hydrobiology 12(1–2): 23–37.
Kale, S. (2017a). Climatic trends in the temperature of Çanakkale city, Turkey. Natural and Engineering Sciences 2(3): 14–27. DOI: 10.28978/nesciences.348449.
Kale, S. (2017b). Analysis of climatic trends in evaporation for Çanakkale (Turkey). Middle East Journal of Science 3(2): 69–82. DOI: 10.23884/mejs.2017.3.2.01.
Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016a). Climate change impacts on streamflow of Karamenderes River (Çanakkale, Turkey). Marine Science and Technology Bulletin 5(2): 1–6.
Kale, S., Ejder, T., Hisar, O. & Mutlu, F. (2016b). Effect of climate change on annual streamflow of Bakırçay River. Adıyaman University Journal of Science 6(2): 156–176.
Kale, S., Hisar, O., Sönmez, A.Y., Mutlu, F. & Filho, W.L. (2018). An assessment of the effects of climate change on annual streamflow in rivers in western Turkey. International Journal of Global Warming 15(2): 190–211. DOI: 10.1504/IJGW.2018.092901.
Kanani, R., Fakheri Fard, A., Ghorbani, M.A. & Dinpashoh, Y. (2020). Analysis of the role of climatic and human factors in runoff variations (case study: Lighvan River in Urmia Lake Basin, Iran). Journal of Water and Climate Change 11(1): 291–302. DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2019.186.
Khairuddin, N., Aris, A.Z., Elshafie, A., Sheikhy Narany, T., Ishak, M.Y. et al. (2019). Efficient forecasting model technique for river stream flow in tropical environment. Urban Water Journal 16(3): 183–192. DOI: 10.1080/1573062X.2019.1637906.
Kendall, M.G. (1955). Rank correlation methods. 2nd ed. New York: Hafner Publishing Co.
Kişi, Ö., Guimarães Santos, C.A., Marques da Silva, R. & Zounemat-Kermani, M. (2018). Trend analysis of monthly streamflows using Şen’s innovative trend method. Geofizika, 35(1): 53–68.
Lee, C-H. & Yeh, H-F. (2019). Impact of climate change and human activities on streamflow variations based on the Budyko framework. Water 11(10): 2001. DOI: 10.3390/w11102001.
Lehmann, E.L. (1975). Nonparametrics: Statistical Methods Based on Ranks. San Francisco: Holden-Day.
Li, F., Zhang, G. & Xu, Y. J. (2016). Assessing climate change impacts on water resources in the Songhua River Basin. Water 8(10): 1–17. DOI: 10.3390/w8100420.
Li, L.J., Zhang, L., Wang, H., Yang, J.W., Jiang, D.J. et al. (2007). Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamfow from the Wuding River Basin in China. Hydrological Processes 21(25): 3485–3491. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.6485.
Li, Z. & Jin, J. (2017). Evaluating climate change impacts on streamflow variability based on a multisite multivariate GCM downscaling method in the Jing River of China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 21(11): 5531–5546. DOI: 10.5194/hess-21-5531-2017.
Ligaray, M., Kim, H., Sthiannopkao, S., Lee, S., Cho, K.H. et al. (2015). Assessment on hydrologic response by climate change in the Chao Phraya River Basin, Thailand. Water 7(12): 6892–6909. DOI: 10.3390/w7126665.
Mann, H.B. (1945) Nonparametric tests against trend. Econometrica 13: 245–259.
Myronidis, D., Ioannou, K., Fotakis, D. & Dörflinger, G. (2018). Streamflow and hydrological drought trend analysis and forecasting in Cyprus. Water Resources Management 32(5): 1759–1776. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-018-1902-z.
Naz, B.S., Kao, S-C., Ashfaq, M., Gao, H., Rastogi, D. et al. (2018). Effects of climate change on streamflow extremes and implications for reservoir inflow in the United States. Journal of Hydrology 556: 359–370. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.11.027.
Ozkul, S. (2009). Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz and Buyuk Menderes Basins. Climatic Change 97(1–2): 253–283. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-009-9589-z.
Pettitt, A.N. (1979). A non-parametric approach to the changepoint problem. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C (Applied Statistics) 28: 126–135.
Pumo, D., Caracciolo, D., Viola, F. & Noto, L.V. (2016). Climate change effects on the hydrological regime of small nonperennial river basins. Science of The Total Environment 542(Part A): 76–92. DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.10.109.
Qian, B., Zhange, D., Wang, J., Huang, F. & Wu, Y. (2016). Impacts of reservoirs on the streamflow and sediment load of the Hanjiang River, China. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment 188(11): 646. DOI: 10.1007/s10661-016-5652-1.
R Core Team. (2019). R: A language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria URL https://www.R-project.org/.
Rani, S. & Sreekesh, S. (2019). Evaluating the responses of streamflow under future climate change scenarios in a Western Indian Himalaya Watershed. Environmental Processes 6(1): 155–174. DOI: 10.1007/s40710-019-00361-2.
Saidi, H., Dresti, C., Manca, D. & Ciampittiello, M. (2018). Quantifying impacts of climate variability and human activities on the streamflow of an Alpine river. Environmental Earth Sciences 77(19): 690. DOI: 10.1007/s12665-018-7870-z.
Saplıoğlu, K., Kilit, M. & Yavuz, B.K. (2014). Trend analysis of streams in the western Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin 23(1): 1–12.
Sen, P.K. (1968). Estimates of the regression coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 63(324): 1379–1389.
Şen, Z. (2012). Innovative trend analysis methodology. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 17(9): 1042–1046. DOI: 10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000556.
Şen, Z., Şişman, E. & Dabanli, I. (2019). Innovative poligon trend analysis (IPTA) and applications. Journal of Hydrology 575: 202–210. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.05.028.
Shahid, M., Cong, Z. & Zhange, D. (2018). Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on streamflow: a case study of the Soan River basin, Pakistan. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 134(1–2): 205–219. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-017-2269-4.
Sneyers, R. (1990). On the statistical analysis of series of observations. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Note no. 143, WMO no. 415.
Sönmez, A.Y. & Kale, S. (2020). Climate change effects on annual streamflow of Filyos River (Turkey). Journal of Water and Climate Change 11(2): 420–433. DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2018.060.
Stellwagen, E. & Tashman, L. (2019). ARIMA: The Models of Box and Jenkins. Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting 30: 28–33.
Tanatmış, M. (2004). The Ephemeroptera (Insecta) fauna of the Gökırmak river basin (Kastamonu) and of the seashore lying between Cide (Kastamonu)-Ayancık (Sinop). Türk Entomoloji Dergisi 28(1): 45–56.
Topaloğlu, F. (2006). Trend detection of stream ow variables in Turkey. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin 15(7): 644–653.
Tosunoglu, F. & Kisi, O. (2017). Trend analysis of maximum hydrologic drought variables using Mann–Kendall and Şen’s innovative trend method. River Research and Applications, 33(4): 597–610. DOI: 10.1002/rra.3106.
Tosunoğlu, F. (2017). Trend analysis of daily maximum rainfall series in Çoruh Basin, Turkey. Iğdır University Journal of the Institute of Science and Technology 7(1): 195–205. DOI: 10.21597/jist.2017127432.
TÜBİTAK-BİLGEM-YTE. (2015). Havza İzleme ve Değerlendirme Sistemi (HİDS, Basin Monitoring and Assessment System). TÜBİTAK Informatics and Information Security Research Center (BİLGEM) Software Technologies Research Institute (YTE). Ankara, Turkey.
Türkeş, M. & Acar Deniz, Z. (2011). Climatology of South Marmara Division (North West Anatolia) and observed variations and trends. International Journal of Human Sciences 8(1): 1579–1600.
Türkeş, M., Öztaş, T., Tercan, E., Erpul, G., Karagöz, A. et al. (2020). Desertification vulnerability and risk assessment for Turkey via an analytical hierarchy process model. Land Degradation & Development 31(2): 205–214. DOI: 10.1002/ldr.3441.
Villarini, G., Smith, J.A., Serinaldi, F. & Ntelekos, A.A. (2011). Analyses of seasonal and annual maximum daily discharge records for Central Europe. Journal of Hydrology 399(3–4): 299–312. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.01.007.
Wang, C., Xu, J., Chen, Y. & Li, W. (2019). An approach to simulate the climate-driven streamflow in the data-scarce mountain basins of Northwest China. Journal of Earth System Science 128(4): 95. DOI: 10.1007/s12040-019-1117-6.
Wang, S., Yan, M., Yan, Y., Shi, C. & He, L. (2012). Contributions of climate change and human activities to the changes in runoff increment in different sections of the Yellow River. Quaternary International 282: 66–77. DOI: 10.1016/j.quaint.2012.07.011.
Yan, T., Bai, J., Arsenio, T., Liu, J. & Shen, Z. (2019). Future climate change impacts on streamflow and nitrogen exports based on CMIP5 projection in the Miyun Reservoir Basin, China. Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology 19(2): 266–278. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecohyd.2018.09.001.
Yercan, M., Dorsan, F. & Ul, M. (2004). Comparative analysis of performance criteria in irrigation schemes: A case study of Gediz river basin in Turkey. Agricultural Water Management 66: 259–266.
Yildirim, C., Schildgen, T.F., Echtler, H., Melnick, D., Bookhagen, B. et al. (2013). Tectonic implications of fluvial incision and pediment deformation at the northern margin of the Central Anatolian Plateau based on multiple cosmogenic nuclides. Tectonics 32(5): 1107–1120. DOI: 10.1002/tect.20066.
Yıldız, D. (2017). The importance of water in development. World Water Diplomacy & Science News 10006(1–4): 1–7.
Yildiz, D., Yildiz, D. & Güneş, M.Ş. (2019). Analysis of long-term natural streamflow trends in Upper Euphrates River Basin. European Journal of Science and Technology 15: 118–131. DOI: 10.31590/ejosat.500548.
Zhan, C.S., Jiang, S.S., Sun, F.B., Jia, Y.W., Niu, C.W. et al. (2014). Quantitative contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff changes in the Wei River basin, China. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 18(8): 3069–3077. DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-3069-2014.
Zhou, Y., Shi, C., Fan, X. & Shao, W. (2015). The influence of climate change and anthropogenic activities on annual runoff of Huangfuchuan basin in northwest China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 120(1–2): 137–146. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1160-9.
