Military Use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV) by Ukraine – Risk Assessment of Potential Impact on the Territory of the Republic of Belarus

Abstract

The article presents an analysis of the Ukrainian experience in using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in military operations in the context of potential impact on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and its critical infrastructure. It examines the possibility of using unmanned aerial vehicles to strike strategically important targets on Belarusian territory, including airfields, oil refineries, gas pipelines, warehouses, and other key elements of critical infrastructure. The starting point is a study of similar impacts on the Russian Federation in the context of attacks on airfields, oil refineries, gas pipelines, and warehouses. Hypothesis of this work is the statement that Ukraine may have a significant impact on the Republic of Belarus through the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These capabilities are largely limited by the potential risks of such impact. The article presents the results of computer modeling of military operations using unmanned aerial vehicles, which provide insights into the likelihood of such operations, allowing for the assumption and determination of both the operation's effectiveness and the potential response.