Balancing policy of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf in the face of the war in Ukraine

Authors

  • Wojciech Grabowski University of Gdańsk

Keywords:

War in Ukraine, Middle East, Persian Gulf, Arab States, Russia, USA

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the determinants of the balancing policy of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf in relation to the war in Ukraine and the political and economic consequences of this policy. The main hypothesis holds that the foreign policy of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf toward the war in Ukraine is primarily a function of their relations with the USA and Russia and their own political/economic interests/gains (primarily the enhancing of their own power position in the international arena). Three research questions were posed to verify this hypothesis: 1) Why are the Arab states of the Persian Gulf pursuing a balancing policy in relations to the war in Ukraine? 2) How do US-Arab and Russian-Arab relations translate into the foreign policy strategy of the oil monarchies toward the war in Ukraine? 3) How will the balancing policies of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf affect their relations with the USA and Russia? The paper makes a reference to the theory of neorealism, thanks to which selected determinants of the policy of balancing/non-involvement in the war in Ukraine were indicated.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

‘Aramco completes three transactions with PKN ORLEN in Poland’, 30 November 2022, available at https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/news/2022/aramco-completes-threetransactions-with-pkn-orlen-in-poland, (last access 3 December 2022).

Clausewitz, C. von (2010) O wojnie, Warszawa: Bellona.

Frolovskyi, D. (2018) ‘Understanding Russia-GCC relations’, Chaillot paper 146: p. 83-94.

Goodin, R. E. (2010) The Oxford Handbook of International Relations, Oxford: Oxford University Press.

Goldberg, J. (2016) ‘The Obama Doctrine’. The Atlantic, available at https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/, (last access 20 November 2022).

Hardie J., Taleblu B.B. (2022) ‘Iran is now at war with Ukraine’, Foreign Policy, 26 October 2022, https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/26/iran-ukraine-russia-war-drones-missiles-military-advisors-middle-east-nuclear/ (last access 20 November 2022).

Irish, J. (2022) ‘UAE, France to agree diesel deal as UAE leader heads to Paris’, Reuters, 15 July 2022, available at https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/united-arab-emirates-guarantee-diesel-supplies-france-source-macrons-office-2022-07-15/ (last access 3 December 2022).

Israsena-Pichitkanjanakul, V. (2022) ‘China’s foreign policy in the Middle East and the position of the GCC states’ in: M. Haghirian, L. Zaccara (eds.), China’s economic and political presence in the Middle East and South Africa, New York 2022: Routledge.

Katz, M. (2022) ‘Risk or opportunity? How Russia sees a changing MENA region’, The Atlantic, 12 July 2022, available at: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/riskor-opportunity-how-russia-sees-a-changing-mena-region/, (last access 12 December 2022).

Kerr S. (2022) ‘UAE agrees LNG deal with Germany as Berlin looks to replace Russian gas’, Financial Times, 25 September 2022, available at https://www.ft.com/content/0065dfcc-4519-41b6-9883-92e7ff13777d, (last access 5 December 2022).

Levy, J. S. (2004) ‘What do Great Powers Balance Against and When?’ in: T.V. Paul, J.J. Wirtz and M. Fortmann (eds.), Balance of Power: Theory and Practice in the 21st Century, Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Miller A.D. (2022) ‘Saudi Arabia Is Not a U.S. Ally. Biden Should Stop Treating It Like One’, Foreign Policy, available at https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/10/11/biden-saudi-arabia-opecplus-oil-production-mohammed-bin-salman/ 11 October 2022, (last access 2 December 2022).

‘Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China’ (2021), Transcript of State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s Exclusive Interview with Al Arabiya, available at http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/t1864531.shtml

Mohseni-Cheraghlou A., Vafei H. (2022) ‘China in the Middle East and North Africa: an empirical inquiry on China’s expansion toward the West’ in: M. Haghirian, L. Zaccara (eds.), China’s economic and political presence in the Middle East and South Africa, New York: Routledge.

Morgenthau, H. (1965) Scientific Man versus Power Politics Chicago: Phoenix Books.

Morgenthau, H. (1985) Politics among Nations: The Struggle for Power and Peace, 6th edn. New York: Knopf.

Omar, A. ‘Abu, UAE Warns Over ‘Provocative Visits’ After Pelosi Trip to Taiwan’, Bloomberg, 4 August 2022, available at https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-08-04/uaewarns-over-provocative-visits-after-pelosi-trip-to-taiwan (last access 1 December 2022).

Rumley, G. (2022), ‘Unpacking the UAE F-35 Negotiations’, Policy Watch 3578, 15 February 2022, available at https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/unpacking-uae-f-35-negotiation (last access 28 November 2022).

‘The Ukraine Crisis and the Gulf: A Saudi Perspective. Interview with Abdulaziz Al Sager’, 18 October 2022, available at https://www.institutmontaigne.org/en/analysis/ukraine-crisisand-gulf-saudi-perspective (last access 12 December 2022).

Vasquez, J. A. & Elman, C. (eds.) (2002), Realism and the balancing of power: A new debate, New York: Prentice Hall.

Walt, S. (1987) The Origins of Alliances, Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.

Waltz, K. N. (2008) Realism and International Politics, New York: Routledge.

Wintour, P. (2022) ‘Germany agrees 15-year liquid gas supply deal with Qatar’, The Guardian, 29 November 2022, available at https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/29/germany-agrees-15-year-liquid-gas-supply-deal-with-qatar, (last access 9 December 2022).

Yahya, M. (2022) ‘The Arab World and the Ukraine conflict: The quest for nonalignment’, Atlantic Council, 12 July 2022, available at https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/uncategorized/the-arab-world-and-the-ukraine-conflict-the-quest-for-nonalignment/, (last access 25 November 2022).

Downloads

Published

2022-12-29

How to Cite

Grabowski, W. (2022). Balancing policy of the Arab states of the Persian Gulf in the face of the war in Ukraine. European Journal of Transformation Studies, 10(2), 192–205. Retrieved from https://czasopisma.bg.ug.edu.pl/index.php/journal-transformation/article/view/8223

Issue

Section

Artykuły