Geostrategic situation of Latvia in relation to the foreign policy of the Russian Federation

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26881/jpgs.2023.3.06

Keywords:

security, cyberattacks, geostrategy, Latvia, foreign policy, Russia

Abstract

The work addresses the issue of the geostrategic situation of Latvia in relation to Russia’s foreign policy, which is important for security in the Baltic Sea region. The work uses literary, historical and systemic methods of analysis. The aim of the work is to present the geostrategic position of Latvia. A historical analysis was undertaken indicating the causes of the current geostrategic situation of the country. The conditions and goals of the Russian foreign policy in the Baltic Sea basin and the strategic goals of actors involved in the region of NATO, the EU, the Russian Federation and Latvia were indicated. The main problems of the geostrategic location include cyber-attacks, disinformation campaigns conducted by the Russian media and a real threat to the integrity of the state posed by the Russian inhabitants of the country. It was decided that the Russian population could be used as a tool of pressure on the country’s authorities, especially since the Russian minority, constituting approximately 26% of Latvia’s population, can create its own parties and demand its rights, including demands for autonomy. The forecast of changes assumes that this problem will increase as Latvia struggles with demographic complications. It can be concluded that the smaller the numerical ratio of Latvians to Russians, the more difficult it will be for them to maintain their own statehood in a potential conflict situation with Russia. This is currently the most serious issue in Latvia’s security policy.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A Baltic Sea Strategy for the Northern Dimension, 2006, European Parliament resolution on a Baltic Sea Region Strategy for the Northern Dimension. https://eur-lex. europa.eu/LexUriServ/LexUriServ.do?uri=OJ:C:2006:314E :0330:0333:EN:PD (accessed 15 October 2023).

An EU Strategy for the Baltic Sea Region, 2006, EU Parliament. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ BRIE/2022/733703/EPRS_BRI(2022)733703_EN.pdf (accessed 10 October 2023).

Bergmane U., 2016, Latvia’s Debate About Russian Propaganda, Baltic Bulletin, July 6, http://www.fpri.org/ article/2016/07/latvias-debate-russian-propaganda/ (accessed 10 October 2023).

Bērziņa I., Cepurītis M., Kaljula D., Juurvee I., 2018, Russia’s Footprint in the Nordic-Baltic Information Environment 2016/2017, NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, Riga.

Bógdał-Brzezińska A., 2004, Rosja, Ukraina i Białoruś: koncepcje społeczeństwa informacyjnego i gospodarki opartej na wiedzy (Eng. Russia, Ukraine and Belarus: concepts of the information society and knowledgebased economy), Stosunki Międzynarodowe, 30(3–4), 169–189.

Bógdał-Brzezińska A., 2020a, Mocarstwowość kosmiczna i cybernetyczna jako komponent zmian w obszarze bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego (Eng. Space and cyber power as a component of changes in the area of international security), [in:] P. Bajor (Ed.), Bezpieczeństwo międzynarodowe. Aspekty metodologiczne i systemowe (Eng. International security. Methodological and systemic aspects), Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Jagiellońskiego, Kraków, 122–139.

Bógdał-Brzezińska A., 2020b, Cyberprzestrzeń i przestrzeń kosmiczna jako sfery bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego – aspekty teoretyczne (Eng. Cyberspace and outer space as spheres of international security - theoretical aspects), [in:] M. Jurgilewicz, M. Delong, K. Michalski, W. Krztoń, (Eds.), Wyzwania bezpieczeństwa w XXI wieku. (Eng. Security challenges in the 21st century), Oficyna Wydawnicza Politechniki Rzeszowskiej, Rzeszów, 129– 142.

Bógdał-Brzezińska A., 2023, Effectiveness of Russia’s cyberaggression against Ukraine in 2022/2023, Przegląd Geopolityczny, 44, 25–40.

Bógdał-Brzezińska A., Wendt J.A., 2020, Geopolityczny kontekst suwerenności informacyjnej Rosji w cyberprzestrzeni i jej znaczenie dla bezpieczeństwa międzynarodowego (Eng. The geopolitical context of Russia’s information sovereignty in cyberspace and its importance for international security), De Securitate et Defensione. O Bezpieczeństwie i Obronności, 2(6), 97–113. doi: 10.34739/dsd.2020.02.07.

Brussels Summit Declaration, 2018, NATO, The Heads of State and Government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Brussels, 11-12 July 2018, https:// www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_156624.htm (accessed 13 October 2023).

Brzeziński Z., 1986, Game Plan: A Geostrategic Framework for the Conduct of the U.S.-Soviet Contest, Atlantic Monthly Press, Boston. Chase S., 2017, Latvia warns Canada to expect Russian smear campaign against troops, https://www.theglobeandmail. com/news/politics/latvian-minister-warns-canadiantroops-to-expect-russian-smear-campaign/ article34398851/ (accessed 05 October 2023).

Cichocki M.A., Osica O., 2009, Konsolidacja czy dezintegracja? Bezpieczeństwo w subregionie Morza Bałtyckiego (Eng. Consolidation or disintegration? Security in the Baltic Sea subregion), Nowa Europa. Przegląd Natoliński, Special Issuse 1(2).

Claval P., 1996, Géopolitique et géostratégie: la pensée politique, l’espace et le territoire au XXe siècle (Eng. Geopolitics and geostrategy: political thought, space and territory in the 20th century), Nathan, Paris.

Conley H.A., Mina J., Stefanov R., Vladimirov M., 2016, The Kremlin Playbook: Understanding Russian Influence in Central and Eastern Europe. Part: Latvia. A report of the CSIS Europe Program and the CSD Economics Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies, October 2016, https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/ publication/1601017_Conley_KremlinPlaybook_Web. pdf (accessed 18 October 2023).

Cyber Security Strategy of Latvia, 2014, https://www.enisa. europa.eu/topics/national-cyber-security-strategies/ ncss-map/lv-ncss (accessed 12 October 2023).

Daudel C., 1991, Geographie, Geopolitique et Geostrategie. Les Termes de l’Echange (Eng. Geography, Geopolitics and Geostrategy. The Terms of Trade), Strategique, 50, 31–56.

de Montbrial Th., 2002, L’action et le système du monde (Eng. Action and the system of the world), Presses Universitaires de France, Paris.

Eberhardt P., 2017, Konsekwencje geopolityczne depopulacji trzech państw bałtyckich (Eng. Geopolitical consequences of the depopulation of the three Baltic states), Przegląd Geopolityczny, 19, 49–69.

Ģelzis G., 2014, Latvia launches Cyber Defence Unit to beef up online security, https://www.dw.com/en/latvialaunches-cyber-defence-unit-to-beef-up-onlinesecurity/a-17471936 (accessed 14 October 2023).

International security and Estonia 2020, 2020, Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, https://www.valisluureamet.ee/pdf/ raport-2020-en.pdf (accessed 10 October 2023).

Janda J., Sharibzhanov I., Terzi E., Krejčí M., Fišer J., 2017, How do European democracies react to Russian aggression? Review of shifts in strategic & policy documents of EU28 following Russian aggression against Ukraine, „Kremlin Watch Report”, European Values Think-Tank, 22 April 2017, http://www.europeanvalues.net/vyzkum/europeandemocracies-react-russian-aggression/ (accessed 16 October 2023).

Kosienkowski M., 2006, Strategia adaptacyjna Federacji Rosyjskiej wobec państw bałtyckich, (Eng. Adaptation strategy of the Russian Federation towards the Baltic states), Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek, Toruń.

Kuc B., Ścibiorek Z. 2018, Zarys metodologii nauk o bezpieczeństwie (Eng. Outline of the methodology of security sciences), Wydawnictwo Adam Marszałek, Toruń.

Kuczyńska-Zonik A., Szacawa D., Wilczewski D., 2019, Aktualizacja planów obronnych państw bałtyckich na tle wyzwań stojących przed NATO (Eng. Update of the defense plans of the Baltic states against the background of the challenges facing NATO), Instytut Europy Środkowej, Komentarze, 97, 1–3.

Mickiewicz P., 2013, Morze Bałtyckie w rosyjskiej polityce zagranicznej i strategii morskiej (Eng. The Baltic Sea in Russian foreign policy and maritime strategy), Rocznik Integracji Europejskiej, 7, 147–161.

Mickiewicz P., 2015, Bałtycka „zimna wojna”. Możliwe reakcje NATO i UE na rosyjską aktywność militarną na akwenie bałtyckim (Eng. The Baltic «Cold War». Possible reactions of NATO and the EU to Russian military activity in the Baltic Sea), Krakowskie Studia Międzynarodowe, 2, 57–70.

Mickiewicz P., 2020, Wspólnota interesów czy rywalizacja? Subregion Bałtycki w koncepcjach politycznych Rosji i Chin w drugiej i trzeciej dekadzie XXI wieku (Eng. Community of interests or competition? The Baltic Subregion in the political concepts of Russia and China in the second and third decades of the 21st century), Przegląd Geopolityczny, 31, 9–22.

Mróz-Jagiełło A., Wolanin A., 2013, Metoda analizy i krytyki dokumentów w naukach o bezpieczeństwie (Eng. Method of document analysis and criticism in security sciences), Obronność - Zeszyty Naukowe Wydziału Zarządzania i Dowodzenia Akademii Obrony Narodowej, 2(6), 109–118.

On the Restoration of the Rights of Citizens of the Republic of Latvia and the Basic Principles of Naturalization), 1994, Pilsonības likums, Latvijas Vestnesis, 93, 11.08.1994.; Latvijas Republikas Saeimas un Ministru Kabineta Ziņotājs, 17, 08.09.1994. https://likumi.lv/ta/id/57512- pilsonibas-likums (accessed 10.10.2023).

Potulski J., Bógdał-Brzezińska A., Wendt J.A., 2022, Aktorzy – Relacje – Przestrzenie. Wyzwania dla geografii politycznej, stosunków międzynarodowych i geopolityki (Eng. Actors – Relationships – Spaces. Challenges for political geography, international relations and geopolitics), Wydawnictwo PTG, Kraków.

Pronińska K.M., 2012, Bezpieczeństwo energetyczne w stosunkach UE-Rosja. Geopolityka i ekonomia surowców energetycznych (Eng. Energy security in EU-Russia relations. Geopolitics and economics of energy resources), Dom Wydawniczy Elipsa, Warszawa.

Sarlo A.W., 2017, Fighting disinformation in the baltic states, Baltic Bulletin, July 6, 2017, https://www.fpri.org/ article/2017/07/fighting-disinformation-baltic-states/ (accessed 13 October 2023).

Sprūds A., Bukovskis K., Bruģe I. (Eds.), 2017, Latvian Foreign and Security Policy Yearbook 2017, Latvian Institute of International Affairs, Riga, https://liia.lv/en/publications/ latvian-foreign-and-security-policy-yearbook-2017-577 (accessed 10 October 2023).

Stańczyk J., 1996, Współczesne pojmowanie bezpieczeństwa (Eng. Contemporary understanding of security), ISP PAN, Warszawa.

Stańczyk J., 2010, Istota współczesnego pojmowania bezpieczeństwa – zasadnicze tendencje (Eng. The essence of the modern understanding of security – basic trends), Rocznik Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego, 5, 15–33.

Stańczyk J., 2011, European Security and Sustainability Issues in the Context of Current International Environment, Journal of Security and Sustainability Issues, 1(2), 81–90.

Statistical Yearbook of Latvia 2020, 2020, Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia. Riga, https://www.csb.gov.lv/en/ statistics/statistics-by-theme/economy (accessed 15 October 2023).

Szymański P., 2016, Nowa strategia obronna Łotwy (Eng. Latvia’s new defense strategy), Analizy OSW, 2016-06-22, https://www.osw.waw.pl/pl/publikacje/ analizy/2016-06-22/nowa-strategia-obronna-lotwy (accessed 12 October 2023).

Szymański P., 2017, Bałtowie wielu prędkości. Wzmacnianie potencjału obronnego Litwy, Łotwy i Estonii (Eng. Balts of many speeds. Strengthening the defense potential of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia), Prace OSW, 68, Warszawa.

The Military Balance, 2019, IISS, Routledge, London. The National Security Concept, 2015, Latvian Ministry of Defence http://www.mod.gov.lv/~/media/AM/Par_ aizsardzibas_nozari/Plani,%20koncepcijas/NDK/NDK_ ENG_final.ashx (accessed 09 October 2023).

The World Factbook, 2019, https://www.cia.gov/library/ publications/the-world-factbook/geos/lg.html (accessed 10 October 2023).

Topolski I., 2013, Polityka Federacji Rosyjskiej wobec państw Europy Wschodniej (Eng. Policy of the Russian Federation towards the countries of Eastern Europe), Wydawnictwo UMCS, Lublin.

Wendt J.A., 2021. Populations as Determinant of Latvia’s Security, Revista Română de Geografie Politică, 23(1), 22– 28. doi: 10.30892/rrgp.231103-349.

Wendt J.A., 2023, Artificial intelligence, genom, cyberspace and space – contemporary threats to the security of the state and nations, Revista Română de Geografie Politică, 25(2), 54–63. doi: 10.30892/rrgp.252101-364.

Wendt J.A., Bógdał-Brzezińska A., 2022, Sovranità nel cyberspazio: il contesto geopolitico della posizione della Russia come potenza mondiale (Eng. Sovereignty in cyberspace: The geopolitical context of Russia’s position as a world power), [in:] T. D’Aponte M.P. Pagnini, G. Terranova (Eds.), Visioni geopolitiche di un mondo disordinario (Eng. Geopolitical visions of a disordered world), Aracne, Roma, 417–433. doi: 10.53136/979122180170525.

Wintour P., 2017, West failing to tackle Russian hacking and fake news, says Latvia, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/05/west-failing-to-tackle-russianhacking-and-fake-news-says-latvia.(accessed 18 October 2023).

Żurawski vel Grajewski P., 2011, Strategia Federacji Rosyjskiej wobec państw Morza Bałtyckiego (Eng. Strategy of the Russian Federation towards the Baltic Sea countries), Analizy Natolińskie, 4(52), 1-62.

Downloads

Published

2023-12-29

How to Cite

Stańczyk, J. (2023). Geostrategic situation of Latvia in relation to the foreign policy of the Russian Federation. Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, 13(3), 55–62. https://doi.org/10.26881/jpgs.2023.3.06

Issue

Section

Articles