The types of fertility patterns in Europe

Authors

  • Anna Majdzińska University of Lodz

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26881/jpgs.2021.2.06

Keywords:

demographic processes in European countries, fertility patterns, family formation processes, typology

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to present the types of fertility patterns that characterise European countries and their NUTS-1 units in the early 21st c. and in the near future. The types of fertility patterns were defined by ordering six five-year age groups of women aged from 15 to 44 years, according to the groups’ fertility rates (from the highest to the lowest). The analysis resulted in the creation of 14 different types of fertility patterns. Countries located in the same European region tend to have the same or similar type of fertility pattern. In most European countries, the postponement transition can be observed, and it will probably continue in the future.

Differences between the fertility rates of the age groups were assessed within countries and between countries with the same type of fertility pattern by calculating the so-called fertility rate ratios. The paper also provides an overview of the main theories and concepts explaining the course of family formation processes in Europe and indicates factors that shape fertility patterns in European countries today.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

Baudin T., 2015, Religion and fertility: The French connection, Demographic Research, 32, 397–420. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.32.13.

Becker G.S., 1960, An economic analysis of fertility, [in:] G.B. Roberts (ed.), Demographic and economic change in developed countries, Universities-National Bureau Committee for Economic Research, Princeton, 209–240.

Becker G.S., Barro R.J., 1988, A reformulation of the economic theory of fertility, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 103(1), 1–25. doi: 10.2307/1882640.

Billari F.C., 2004, Becoming an adult in Europe: A macro(/ micro)-demographic perspective, Demographic Research. Special Collection, 3, 15–44. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2004. S3.2.

Billari F.C., Castiglioni M., Castro Martìn T., Michielin F., Ongaro F., 2002, Household and union formation in a Mediterranean fashion: Italy and Spain, [in:] E. Klijzing, M. Corijn (eds.), Fertility and partnership in Europe: Findings and lessons from comparative research, Vol. II, United Nations, Geneva - New York, 17–41.

BTI, 2018, Country Report — Belarus 2018, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gütersloh. Bueno X., Brinton M.C., 2019, Gender egalitarianism, perceived economic insecurity, and fertility intentions in Spain: A qualitative analysis, Population Studies, 73(2), 247–260. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2019.1604979.

Caldwell J.C., 1978, A theory of fertility: From high plateau to destabilization, Population and Development Review, 4(4), 553–577.

Caldwell J.C., 1980, Mass education as a determinant of the timing of fertility decline, Population and Development Review, 6(2), 225–255.

Caldwell J.C., 1982, Theory of fertility decline, Academic Press, London.

Castles F.G., 2003, The world turned upside down: below replacement fertility, changing preferences and family-friendly public policy in 21 OECD countries, Journal of European Social Policy, 13, 209–227. doi: 10.1177/09589287030133001.

Coleman D., 2006, Immigration and ethnic change in lowfertility countries: A third demographic transition, Population and Development Review, 32(3), 401–446.

De Rose A., Racioppi F., Zanatta A.L., 2008, Italy: Delayed adaptation of social institutions to changes in family behaviour, Demographic Research, 19, 665–704. doi: 10.4054/ DemRes.2008.19.19.

Delgado M., Meil G., Zamora-López F.Z., 2008, Spain: Short on children and short on family policies, Demographic Research, 19, 1059–1104. doi:10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.27.

Dobrinsky R., 2016, Belarus’ unorthodox political and economic transformation, [in:] R. Dobrinsky (ed.), The Belarus economy: The challenges of stalled reforms, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, Vienna, 1–168.

Dorbritz J., 2008, Germany: Family diversity with low actual and desired fertility, Demographic Research, 19, 557–598. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.17.

Dubuc S., Haskey J., 2010, Ethnicity and fertility in the United Kingdom, [in:] J. Stillwell, M. van Ham (eds.), Ethnicity and integration. Understanding population trends and processes, 3, Springer, Dordrecht, 63–81. doi: 10.1007/978-90- 481-9103-1_4.

Easterlin R.A., 1978, The economics and sociology of fertility: a synthesis, [in:] C. Tilly (ed.), Historical studies of changing fertility, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 57–134. Eurostat, 2019, Births and fertility, Newsrelease, 44/2019 – 12 March 2019, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/ documents/2995521/9648811/3-12032019-AP-EN. pdf/412879ef-3993-44f5-8276-38b482c766d8 (accessed 20 March 2020).

Eurostat, Database, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/data/database (accessed 18 July 2019).

Eurostat, GISCO, http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/gisco/ geodata/reference-data/administrative-units-statisticalunits/countries and http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/ gisco/geodata/reference-data/administrative-units-statistical-units/nuts (accessed 21 July 2019).

Eurostat, NUTS – Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics. Background, https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/nuts/ background (accessed 18 July 2019).

Fiori F., Rinesi F., Graham E., 2017, Choosing to remain childless? A comparative study of fertility intentions among women and men in Italy and Britain, European Journal of Population, 33(3), 319–350. doi: 10.1007/s10680-016- 9404-2.

Frejka T., Gietel-Basten S., 2016, Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990, Comparative Population Studies, 41(1), 3–56. doi: 10.12765/CPoS-2016-03en.

Goldstein J.R., 2009, How pAge, [in:] P. Uhlenberg (ed.), International handbook of population aging, Springer, Dordrecht, 7–18. doi:10.1007/978-1-4020-8356-3.

Gordo L.R., 2009, Why are women delaying motherhood in Germany?, Feminist Economics, 15(4), 57–75. doi: 10.1080/13545700903153955.

Hoffman L.W., Hoffman M.L., 1973, The value of children to parents, [in:] J.T. Fawcett (ed.), Psychological perspectives on population, Basic Books, New York, 19–76.

Hoffman L.W., Thornton A., Manis J.D., 1978, The value of children to parents in the United States, Journal of Population, 1(2), 91–131.

Holland J.A., Keizer R., 2015, Family attitudes and fertility timing in Sweden, European Journal of Population, 31(3), 259–285. doi: 10.1007/s10680-014-9333-x.

Hubert S., 2015, The impact of religiosity on fertility. A comparative analysis of France, Hungary, Norway, and Germany, Springer, Wiesbaden. doi: 10.1007/978-3-658-07008-3.

Kirk D., 1944, Population changes and the postwar world, American Sociological Review, 9(1), 28–35.

Kirk D., 1996, Demographic transition theory, Population Studies, 50, 361–387.

Klärner A., 2015, The low importance of marriage in eastern Germany – social norms and the role of peoples’ perceptions of the past, Demographic Research, 33, 239–272. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2015.33.9.

Kohler H.P., Billari F.C., Ortega J.A., 2002, The emergence of lowest-low fertility in Europe during the 1990s, Population and Development Review, 28(4), 641–680. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2002.00641.x.

Köppen K., Trappe H., 2019, The gendered division of labor and its perceived fairness: Implications for childbearing in Germany, Demographic Research, 40, 1413–1440. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2019.40.48.

Kotowska I., Jóźwiak J., Matysiak A., Baranowska A., 2008, Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?, Demographic Research, 19, 795–854. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.22.

Koytcheva E., Philipov D., 2008, Bulgaria: Ethnic differentials in rapidly declining fertility, Demographic Research, 19, 361–402. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.13.

Kurek S., Lange M., 2012, Urbanisation and changes in fertility pattern in Poland and in the selected countries of Western and Southern Europe, Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 17, 77–85. doi: 10.2478/v10089- 012-0008-2.

Leibenstein H., 1957, Economic backwardness and economic growth, John Wiley and Sons, New York.

Leibenstein H., 1975, The economic theory of fertility decline, The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 89(1), 1–31.

Lerch M., 2018, Fertility and union formation during crisis and societal consolidation in the Western Balkans, Population Studies. A Journal of Demography, 752(2), 217–234. doi: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1412492.

Lesthaeghe R., 2010, The unfolding story of the second demographic transition, Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211–25. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x.

López-González A., González-González M.J., 2018, Third demographic transition and demographic dividend: An application based on panel data analysis, Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, 42, 59–82. doi: 10.2478/ bog-2018-0031.

Matysiak A., Sobotka T., Vignoli D., 2018, The great recession and fertility in Europe: A sub-national analysis, Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, 2, https://www. oeaw.ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Publications/Working_Papers/WP2018_02.pdf (accessed 20 March 2020).

Mureşan C., Hărăguş P.T., Hărăguş M., Schröder C., 2008, Romania: Childbearing metamorphosis within a changing context, Demographic Research, 19, 855–906. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.23.

Niu C.,Xia Q., 2015, Testing the rate ratio under inverse sampling based on gradient statistic, Journal of Applied Statistics, 42(7), 1402–1420. doi: 10.1080/02664763.2014.999655.

Noordzij M., Van Diepen M., Caskey F.C., Jager K.J., 2017, Relative risk versus absolute risk: one cannot be interpreted without the other, Nephrol Dial Transplant, 32, ii13–ii18. doi: 10.1093/ndt/gfw465.

Notestein F.W., 1945, Population – The long view, [in:] T.W. Schultz (ed.), Food for the world, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, 36–57.

Nurminen M., 1995, To use or not to use the odds ratio in epidemiologic studies?, European Journal of Epidemiology, 11, 365–371.

Oláh L.Sz., Bernhardt E.M., 2008, Sweden: Combining childbearing and gender equality, Demographic Research, 19, 1105–1144. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.28.

Perelli-Harris B., 2008, Ukraine: On the border between old and new in uncertain times, Demographic Research, 19, 1145–1178. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.29.

Philipov D., 2003, Major trends affecting families in Central and Eastern Europe. Major trends affecting families: A background document, United Nations Programme on the Family, New York, 27–44.

Philipov D., 2017, Rising dispersion in age at first birth in Europe: is it related to fertility postponement?, Vienna Institute of Demography Working Papers, 11 https://www.oeaw. ac.at/fileadmin/subsites/Institute/VID/PDF/Publications/ Working_Papers/WP2017_11_HFD_RR-2017-005.pdf (accessed 30 March 2020).

Philipov D., Kohler H., 2001, Tempo effects in the fertility decline in Eastern Europe: Evidence from Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, and Russia, European Journal of Population, 17(1), 37–60.

Potančoková M., Vaňo B., Pilinská V.,Jurčová D., 2008, Slovakia: Fertility between tradition and modernity, Demographic Research, 19, 973–1018. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.25.

Prskawetz A., Sobotka T., Buber I., Engelhardt H., Gisser R., 2008, Austria: Persistent low fertility since the mid-1980s, Demographic Research, 19, 293–360. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.12.

Sigle-Rushton W., 2008, England and Wales: Stable fertility and pronounced social status differences, Demographic Research, 19, 455–502. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.15.

Sobotka T., 2008, Overview Chapter 6: The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in Europe, Demographic Research, 19, 171–224. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.8.

Sobotka T., Toulemon L., 2008, Changing family and partnership behaviour: Common trends and persistent diversity across Europe, Demographic Research, 19, 85–138. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.6.

Stankuniene V., Jasilioniene A., 2008, Lithuania: Fertility decline and its determinants, Demographic Research, 19, 705–742. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.20.

Stare J., Maucort-Boulch D., 2016, Odds Ratio, hazard ratio and relative risk, Metodološki zvezki, 13(1), 59–67. Tanturri M.L., 2016, Aging Italy: low fertility and societal rigidities, [in:] R.R. Rindfuss, M.K. Choe (eds.), Low fertility, institutions, and their policies, Springer, Cham, 221–257. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-32997-0_9.

Thévenon O., 2011, Family policies in OECD countries: A Comparative Analysis, Population and Development Review, 37(1), 57–87. doi: 10.2307/23043262.

Thomas R.K., 2018, Concepts, methods and practical applications in applied demography, [in:] Concepts, methods and practical applications in applied demography, Springer, Cham, 101–122. doi: 10.1007/978-3-319-65439-3_6.

Toulemon L., Pailhé A., Rossier C., 2008, France: High and stable fertility, Demographic Research, 19, 503–556. doi: 10.4054/DemRes.2008.19.16.

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2017, World Fertility Report 2015 (ST/ ESA/SER.A/415), https://www.un.org/en/development/ desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/wfr2015/ worldFertilityReport2015.pdf (accessed 15 March 2020).

Van De Kaa D.J., 1987, Europe’s Second Demographic Transi - tion, Population Bulletin, 42(1), 1–59.

Van De Kaa D.J., 1997, Options and sequences: Europe’s de - mographic patterns, Journal of Australian Population As - sociation, 14(1), 1–29.

Van De Kaa D.J., 2003, The idea of a Second Demographic Transition in industrialized countries, Journal of Population and Social Security: Population Study, 1(1), http:// www.ipss.go.jp/webj-ad/WebJournal.files/Population/ ps03_4.asp (accessed 10 March 2020).

Walter S.D., 2000, Choice of effect measure for epidemiologi - cal data, Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 53, 931–939.

Willekens F., 2015, Demographic transitions in Europe and the World, [in:] K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman, J. Haers, S. Mels (eds.), Population change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa. Beyond the demographic divide, Ashgate Publishing, London, 13–44.

Downloads

Published

2021-06-30

How to Cite

Majdzińska, A. (2021). The types of fertility patterns in Europe. Journal of Geography, Politics and Society, 11(2), 50–66. https://doi.org/10.26881/jpgs.2021.2.06

Issue

Section

Articles