Safe Havens for Global Jihadi Movements
Słowa kluczowe:
Terrorist Safe Haven, Al-Qaeda, Afghanistan, SomaliaAbstrakt
The issue of terrorist safe havens has been dealt with since 9/11 when al-Qaeda attacked the US from its sanctuary in Afghanistan. However, until now there have been only few attempts to elaborate an analytical framework to identify areas that could transform into terrorist safe havens. Moreover, this issue is particularly important in the era when the so-called ISIS has been physically defeated, however, its ideology remains, hence there is a potential risk of its physical re-emergence in a new sanctuary. Thus, the aim of this article is to define safe havens for global jihadi movements by a set of criteria that make a certain area more attractive and vulnerable to the exploitation by jihadists. All criteria were identified after a rigorous study of the establishment of al-Qaeda in Afghanistan as well as its failure to establish itself in Somalia in the 1990s. The provided toolbox consists of three categories of criteria and sub-criteria whose interplay conditions a successful establishment of a global jihadi movement within a particular area. A quantitative analysis of every factor will enable to identify areas that are the most vulnerable and could potentially become the jihadist sanctuaries.
Downloads
Bibliografia
Arsenault, E. G., Bacon, T., (2015), Disaggregating and Defeating Terrorist Safe Havens. In Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Vol. 38, pp. 85-112.
Brtnický, M., (2008), Politický islám, islamismus a teoretická východiska jeho sunnitské větve. [Political Islam, Islamism and the Theoretical Sources of its Sunni Branch] [online] Global politics, 2008. Available at: http://www.globalpolitics.cz/clanky/sunnitsky-islamismus.
Byman, D., (2015), Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, and the Global Jihadist Movement. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Campana, A., Ducol, B., (2011), Rethinking Terrorist Safe Havens: Beyond a State-Centric Approach. In Civil Wars. Vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 396-413.
Cigánik, Ľ., Jaššová, E., (2006), Terorizmus. Od komunikácie s aktérmi teroru pri oslobodzovaní rukojemníkov až po opatrenia štátov v boji proti nemu. Bratislava: SAV.
Cilliers, J., (2015), Violent Islamist extremism and terror in Africa. [online] Institute for Security Studies, ISS paper no. 286, October 2015. Available at: https://www.africaportal.org/ documents/13651/Paper286-1.pdf.
Country Reports on Terrorism 2017. [online] Bureau of Counterterrorism and Countering Violent Extremism. U.S. Department of State. Accessible at: https://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/ crt/2017/282849.htm.
CTC (2007). Al-Qa-ida-s (Mis)Adventures in the Horn of Africa. [online] Combating Terrorism Center, United States Military Academy. Available at: https://www.ctc.usma.edu/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Al-Qaidas-MisAdventures-in-the-Horn-of-Africa.pdf.
Davis, J. C., (2007), Radical Islamist Ideologies and the Long War. Washington, D.C.: Institute for Foreign Policy Analysis.
Felbab-Brown, V., (2013), Aspiration and Ambivalence. Strategies and Realities of Counterinsurgency and State Building in Afghanistan. Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution.
Gurr, T. R., (1970), Why Men Rebel. New York: Princeton University Press.
Hansen, S. J., (2013), Al-Shabaab in Somalia. The history and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group, 2005-2012. New York: Oxford University Press.
Haqqani, H., (2005), The Ideologies of South Asian Jihadi Groups. In Current trends in Islamist ideology. Vol. 1, pp. 12-26.
Hellmich, C., (2011), Al-Qaeda: From global network to local franchise. London a New York: Zed Books.
Hoffman, B., (2006), Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press. Howard, T., (2010), Failed states and the spread of terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa. In Studiesw in Conflict & Terrorism. Vol. 33, no. 11, pp. 960-988.
ICG (2005), Somalia’s Islamists. [online] International Crisis Group, 12. 12. 2005. Available at: https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/somalia/somalias-islamists.
Innes, M. A., (2006), Terrorist Sanctuaries and Bosnia-Herzegovina: Challenging Conventional Assumptions. In Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Vol. 28, no. 4, pp. 295-305.
Innes, M. A., (2007), Denial of Sanctuary. Understanding Terrorist Safe Havens. Westport and London: Praeger Security International.
Innes, M. A., (2008), Deconstructing Political Orthodoxies on Insurgent and Terrorist Sanctuaries. In Studies in Conflict & Terrorism. Vol. 31, pp. 251-267.
Kaplan, S., (2010), Rethinking State-building in a Failed State. In The Washington Quarterly. Vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 81-97.
Kittner, C. C. B., (2007), The Role of Save Havens in Islamist Terrorism. In Terrorism and Political Violence. Vol. 19, no. 3, pp. 307-329.
Klavec, J., (2014), Terorizmus ako globálna hrozba. Trnava: Univerzita sv. Cyrila a Metoda v Trnave.
Korteweg, R., (2008), Black Holes: On Terrorist Sanctuaries and Governmental Weakness. In Civil Wars. Vol. 10, no. 1, pp. 60-71.
Lamb, R. D., (2008), Ungoverned Areas and Threats from Safe Havens. Final Report of the Ungoverned Areas Project prepared for the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy.
Lutz, J. M., Lutz, B. J., (2008), Global Terrorism. London a New York: Routledge, 2004.
Mankhus, K. J., (2007), Constraints and Opportunities in Ungoverned Spaces: The Horn of Africa. In: Innes, M. A. (ed) Denial of Sanctuary: Understanding Terrorist Safe Havens. Westport and London: Praeger Security International, pp. 67-82.
Mantzikos, I., (2011), Somalia and Yemen: The links between terrorism and state failure. In Digest of Middle East Studies. Vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 242-260.
Moghadam, F. M., (2005), The Staircase to terrorism: A Psychological Explanation. In American Psychologist. Vol. 60, no. 2, pp. 161-169.
National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. February 2003. Available at: https://www.cia. gov/news-information/cia-the-war-on-terrorism/Counter_Terrorism_Strategy.pdf.
National Strategy for Combating Terrorism. September 2006. Available at: https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/nsc/nsct/2006/National Strategy for Counterterrorism. June 2011. Available at: https://obamawhitehouse. archives.gov/sites/default/files/counterterrorism_strategy.pdf.
Netton, I. R. ed., (2008), Encyclopedia of Islamic Civilisation and Religion. London and New York: Routledge.
Pape, R., (2005), Dying to Win: The Strategic Logic of Suicide Terrorism. New York: Random House.
Patrick, S., (2011), Weak Links. Fragile States, Global Threats, and International Security. New York: Oxford University Press.
Piazza, J. A., (2008), Incubators of Terror: Do Failed States and Failing States Promote Transnational Terrorism? In International Studies Quarterly. Vol. 52, no. 3, pp. 469-488.
Quadrennial Defense Review Report. February 6, 2006. Available at: https://archive.defense. gov/pubs/pdfs/QDR20060203.pdf.
Rashid, A., (2002), Osama Bin Laden: How the U.S. Helped Midwife a Terrorist. In Logevall, F. ed. Terrorism and 9/11. Boston and New York: Houghton Mufflin Company, pp. 50-60.
Rotberg, R., (2003), State failure and state weakness in a time of terror. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Schmid, A. P. ed., (2011), The Routledge Handbook of Terrorism Research. Oxon a New York: Routledge.
Shay, S., (2008), Somalia Between Jihad and Restoration. New Brunswick a London: Transaction Publishers.
Sprinzak, E., (1991), The Process of Delegitimization: Towards a Linkage Theory of Political Terrorism. In Terrorism and Political Violence. Vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 50-68.
Stojar, R., (2016), Islámský radikalismus a jeho násilné projevy v kontextu balkánského regionu. In Obrana a Strategie. Vol. 16, no. 1, pp. 59-75.
Sviatko, M., (2005), Globálny terorizmus. Banská Bystrica: Euroatlantické centrum.
Škvrnda, F., (2002), Terorizmus. Najvýznamnejšia nevojenská bezpečnostná hrozba súčasnosti. Bratislava: Generálny štáb ozbrojených síl Slovenskej republiky.
Takeyh, R. - Gvosdev, N., (2002), Do Terrorist Networks Need a Home? In The Washington Quarterly. Vol. 25, no. 3, pp. 97-108.
Taylor, A. 2013. State failure. Hampshire: Palgrave Macmillan. The 9/11 Commission Report. [online] Available at: https://www.9-11commission.gov/report/911Report.pdf.
Welch, D., (1993), Justice and the Genesis of War. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Williams, B. G., (2007), The Failure of al Qaeda Basing Projects from Afghanistan to Iraq. In Innes, M. A. (ed) Denial of Sanctuary: Understanding Terrorist Safe Havens. Westport and London: Praeger Security International, pp. 49-66.