Escalating Shadows: The Russian Nuclear Threat to Europe, with a Focus on Poland and the Baltic Region Against the Backdrop of the War in Ukraine

Abstract

The constant Russian nuclear blackmail poses a serious threat to the fragile global security architecture. The Russian Federation has demonstrated its disdain for international law by ignoring the established norms and revealed the limitations of its conventional military power – compensating for these weaknesses through reliance on nuclear intimidation. The foundation of this “nuclear bluff” strategy lies in a doctrinally undefined policy of nuclear blackmail, described as “escalation for de-escalation”. Against the backdrop of the war in Ukraine, an important question has arisen regarding the security of the Baltic region, which has become one of Russia’s primary targets for nuclear blackmail due to the presence of its exclave, the Kaliningrad (Königsberg) region. This area, due to its geographic location and the forces stationed there, potentially poses a threat to most Central and Eastern European countries. Poland possesses the greatest military potential among NATO countries in the region. In addition, significant US forces are stationed on its territory, and it hosts a missile defence base. For these reasons, Poland plays a particularly important role in the defence and deterrence posture against Russia.