The national debt crisis and the Lebanese case
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26881/wg.2018.3.02Słowa kluczowe:
National debt, Crisis, Credit rating, Restructuring, Debt to GDP, Balance of PaymentAbstrakt
The article focuses on the negative influence of globalization on the world economy. The purpose of this research is to systematize the global processes and outline the paradoxes of its development. The article defines the etymology of the term globalization and characterizes its scope of use. It analyzes the origin and formation of the globalization theory, while also systematizing its main areas of investigation. The research explores the fundamental disagreement as to how to conceptualize the phenomenon of globalization. The process of rethinking social change is studied, particularly to the extent that it relates to labelling the existing forms of activity. A systemic critique of global processes is presented, together with its basic critical comments. The article discusses the global prospects of tectonic shifts, which are bound to cause critical changes in the global environment, leading to corresponding changes in the world megatrends. This is proof that the alterglobal model should implement new principles of a global system based on social partnership, state protection and welfare.
Downloads
Bibliografia
Acharya, V. V. et al., 2016. Real effects of the sovereign debt crisis in Europe: Evidence from syndicated loans.
Aǧca, Ş. & Celasun, O., 2012. Sovereign debt and corporate borrowing costs in emerging markets. Journal of International Economics, 88(1), pp.198–208.
Al Jazeera (2016) Michel Aoun elected president of Lebanon, Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/michel-aoun-elected-president-lebanon-161031105331767.html.
Arteta, C. & Hale, G., 2008. Sovereign debt crises and credit to the private sector. Journal of International Economics, 74(1), pp.53–69.
Awdeh, A. (2012) Banking Sector Development and Economic Growth in Lebanon, International Research Journal of Finance and Economics, 100, pp. 53-62.
Bankmed (2016) Analysis of Lebanon’s Travel and Tourism Sector June 2016, Bankmed Special Report, Available at: https://www.bankmed.com.lb/BOMedia/subservices/categories/News/20160629095420404.pdf.
Bedendo, M. & Colla, P., 2015. Sovereign and corporate credit risk: Evidence from the Eurozone. Journal of Corporate Finance, 33, pp.34–52. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.04.006.
Broner, F. et al., 2014. Sovereign debt markets in turbulent times: Creditor discrimination and crowding-out effects. Journal of Monetary Economics, 61(1), pp.114–142. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2013.11.009.
Brutti, F., 2011. Sovereign defaults and liquidity crises. Journal of International Economics, 84(1), pp.65–72. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.02.001.
Caggiano, G. et al., 2016. Comparing logit-based early warning systems: Does the duration of systemic banking crises matter? Journal of Empirical Finance, 37, pp.104–116. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jempfin.2016.01.005.
Candelon, B., Dumitrescu, E.I. & Hurlin, C., 2014. Currency crisis early warning systems: Why they should be dynamic. International Journal of Forecasting, 30(4), pp.1016–1029. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.03.015.
Christofides, C., Eicher, T.S. & Papageorgiou, C., 2016. Did established Early Warning Signals predict the 2008 crises? European Economic Review, 81, pp.103–114. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.04.004.
Dawood, M., Horsewood, N. & Strobel, F., 2017. Predicting sovereign debt crises: An Early Warning System approach. Journal of Financial Stability, 28, pp.16–28. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jfs.2016.11.008.
Dias, D.A., Richmond, C. & Wright, M.L.J., 2014. The stock of external sovereign debt: Can we take the data at “face value”? Journal of International Economics, 94(1), pp.1–17. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2014.05.001.
Frankel, J. & Saravelos, G., 2012. Can leading indicators assess country vulnerability? Evidence from the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Journal of International Economics, 87(2), pp.216–231. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2011.12.009.
Gande, A. & Parsley, D.C., 2005. News spillovers in the sovereign debt market. Journal of Financial Economics, 75(3), pp.691–734.
Hilscher, J. & Nosbusch, Y., 2010. Determinants of sovereign risk: Macroeconomic fundamentals and the pricing of sovereign debt. Review of Finance, 14(2), pp.235–262.
Manasse, P. & Roubini, N., 2009. “Rules of thumb” for sovereign debt crises. Journal of International Economics, 78(2), pp.192–205. Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2008.12.002.
Neaime, S., 2015. Twin deficits and the sustainability of public debt and exchange rate policies in Lebanon. Research in International Business and Finance, 33(May 2014), pp.127–143.
Barrington, L. and Williams, D. (2018) Israel, Lebanon clash over offshore energy, raising tensions, Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-natgas-lebanon-israel/israel-lebanon-clash-over-offshore-energy-raising-tensions-idUSKBN1FK1J0.
Bertelsmann Stiftung (2016) BTI 2016 — Lebanon Country Report, Gütersloh: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2016.
BlomInvest Bank (2016) Hidden opportunities in the Lebanese economic sectors, BlomInvest Bank Report, Available at: http://blog.blominvestbank.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Hidden-opportunities-in-the-Lebanese-economic-sectors.pdf.
Byblos Bank (2016) The Lebanese Economy in 2016, The Byblos Bank Report, Available at: https://www.byblosbank.com/Library/Assets//Gallery/Publications/TheLebaneseEconomy/Overview%20and%20Performance%20of%20The%20Lebanese%20Economy%20in2016.pdf.
Chehayeb, K. (2016) What will a new president mean for Lebanon? Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/10/president-lebanon-161030082900603.html.
Cherri, Z., González, P. A. and Delgado, R. C. (2016) The Lebanese–Syrian crisis: impact of influx of Syrian refugees to an already weak state, Risk Management and Healthcare Policy, 9, pp. 165–172.
CIA (2018) GDP Composition by Sector of Origin, Central Intelligence Agency, Available at: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2012.html.
Dibeh, G. (2005) The political economy of post-war reconstruction in Lebanon, World Institute for Development Economic Research, 44, 1-28.
El Khazen, F. (2000) The Breakdown of the State in Lebanon, London: IB Tauris.
Francis, E. and Williams, D. (2018) Lebanon vows to block border wall, Israel eyes diplomacy on gas field, Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-lebanon-israel/lebanon-vows-to-block-border-wall-israel-eyes-diplomacy-on-gas-field-idUSKBN1FR1VO.
Gaspard, T. A. (2004) A political economy of Lebanon, 1948-2002: The limits of Laissez-faire, Leiden: Brill.
Hirst, D. (2010) Beware of Small States: Lebanon, Battleground of the Middle East, New York: Nation Books.
IMF (2014) Lebanon selected issues, IMF Country Report No. 14/238.
IMF (2017) LEBANON: 2016 Article iv consultation—press release; staff report; and statement by the executive director for Lebanon, IMF Country Report No. 17/19.
Kattan, V. (2006 Israel, Hezbollah, and the Conflict in Lebanon: An Act of Aggression or Self-Defense? Human Rights Brief, 14 (1), pp. 26-30.
Knudsen, A. (2005) Precarious Peacebuilding: Post-War Lebanon 1990-2005, CMI Working Paper WP2005:12.
Mackey, S. (2006) Lebanon: A House Divided. New York: W. W. Norton and Company.
Mehanna, R.-A. and Haykal, R. (2016) A sectoral study of Lebanon’s economy: A dynamic CGE model, The Journal of Developing Areas, 50 (3), pp. 389-416.
Mooney, Jr., William K. (2007) Stabilising Lebanon: Peacekeeping or Nation Building, Parameters, Autumn, pp. 28-41.
Muhlbacher, T. F. (2009) What about Post-War Consociationalism? In: Democracy and Power-Sharing in Stormy Weather, VS Publishing House for Social Sciences.
Najem, T. P. (2000) Lebanon’s Renaissance, The political economy of Reconstruction, Reading: Ithaca, Press.
Paris, R. and Timothy D. S. (Eds.). (2008) The dilemmas of state building: Confronting the contradictions of post-war peace operations, London: Routledge.
Raad, M. (2016) Lebanon: Not All That Glitters Is Gold, Available at: http://newsweekme.com/lebanon-not-all-that-glitters-is-gold/.
Rubin, B. M. (2009) Lebanon: Liberation, Conflict, and Crisis, New York City, NY: Palgrave-Macmillan.
Safa, O. (2006) Lebanon Springs Forward, Journal of Democracy, 17(1), pp. 22- 37.
Saidi, N. (2016) Lebanon’s oil and gas wealth: Policy recommendations for escaping the “Devil’s excrement” curse, Konrad Adenauer Stiftung, Policy Paper No. 3.
Salem, P. (2006) The Future of Lebanon, Foreign Affairs, November/December, pp. 13-22.
Stewart, D. J. (1996). Economic recovery and reconstruction in post-war Beirut, Geographical Review, 86(4), pp. 487-504.
Taib, M. (2015) 2013 Minerals Book: Lebanon (Advanced Release), Available at: https://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/country/2013/myb3-2013-le.pdf.
Thomas, G. P. (2012) Lebanon: Mining, Minerals and Fuel Resources, Available at: https://www.azomining.com/Article.aspx?ArticleID=226.
Traboulsi, F. (2007) A history of modern Lebanon, London: Pluto Press.
Wetter, J. (1999) Public Investment Planning and Progress. In S. Eken and T. Helbling (eds), Back to the Future: Post-war Reconstruction and Stabilisation in Lebanon. IMF Occasional Paper No. 176. Washington, DC: IMF.
Winslow, C. (1996) Lebanon: War and Politics in a Fragmented Society. London; New York: Routledge.
Yacoubian, M. (2008) Facing the Abyss: Lebanon's Deadly Political Stalemate, United State Institute of Peace, Peace Brief.