Forward guidance as a tool of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy

Autor

  • Damian Werbowy Uniwersytet Gdański

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26881/wg.2019.2.04

Słowa kluczowe:

banki centralne, Europejski Bank Centralny, polityka monetrna, stopy procentowe

Abstrakt

The purpose of this article is to take a closer look at one of the most unconventional instruments of monetary policy which is the Forward Guidance. This instrument is increasingly more often adopted by central banks. What is more, it is also used by the European Central Bank which implemented this approach for the first time in 2013.

The first part of the article will be focused on presenting a theoretical approach of forward guidance, while the following part will describe examples of implementation of this instrument by the European Central Bank as the new way of communication with the market. The example of forward guidance use by the European Central Bank covers the way of communication of future monetary policy regarding the interest rates.

The data presented in this paper shows a positive effect of the forward guidance approach. This method of communication has brought a clearer view of monetary policy adopted by the European Central Bank. Moreover it limited some uncertainty showed by the market participants regarding the level of future interest rates. The positive effects of the forward guidance lead not only to the continuous but also widespread use of this approach by the European Central Bank.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Bibliografia

Bernanke B.S. (2012), Monetary Policy since the Onset of the Crisis, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, 31 August, Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, What is forward guidance and how is it used in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy?, https://www.federalreserve. gov/faqs/what-is-forward-guidance-how-is-it-used-in-the-federal-reserve-monetarypolicy.htm, access 16.03.2019.

Calvo G., (1978), On the time consistency of optimal policy in the monetary economy, Econometrca, Vol. 46(6).

Campbell, J.R., Evans, Ch.L., Fisher, J.D.M., Justiniano, A., Macroeconomic Effects of Federal Reserve Forward Guidance. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Brooking Papers on Economic Activity, Spring 2012 (WP 2012-03).

Contessi, S., Li, L., Forward Guidance 101B: A Roadmap of the International Experience, „Economic Synopses” 2013a, nr 28, https://research.stlouisfed.org/ publications/es/13/ES_28_2013-10-16.pdf, access 16.03.2019.

Cukierman A., Meltzer A. (1986), A theory of ambiguity, credibility and inflation under discretion and asymmetric information, Econometrica, Vol. 54(4).

Den Haan W. (2013), Forward Guidance. Perspectives from Central Bankers, Scholars and Market Participants, October, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.

European Central Bank (2014a), Monthly Bulletin, April 2014, https://www.ecb.europa.eu /pub/ pdf/mobu/mb201404en.pdf, access 16.03.2019.

European Central Bank (2014b), Annual Report 2013, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/ pdf/annrep/ar2013en.pdf, access 16.03.2019.

Filardo A., Hofmann B. (2014), Forward Guidance at the Zero Lower Bound, BIS Quarterly Review, March.

Fisher I. (1930), The Theory of Interest, The Macmillan, New York.

Goodfriend M., (1986), Monetary mystique: secrecy and central banking, Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 17(1).

IMF (2013), Unconventional monetary policy – recent experience and prospects, IMF Policy Papers April, Washington D.C.: International Monetary Fund.

Kool C.J.M, Thornton D.L. (2012), How Effective Is Central Bank Forward Guidance? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper Series, nr 2012-063A.

Kydland F., Prescott E. (1977), Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans, Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 85(3).

Mishkin F. (2004), Can Central Bank Transparency Go too Far? NBER Working Paper Series, nr 10892.

NBP (2013), Raport o inflacji. Listopad 2013, Warszawa.

Przybylska-Kapuścińska W., Szyszko M.,(2017) Współczesna polityka pieniężna, Difin SA,Warszawa.

Rzońca A, (2014), Kryzys banków centralnych. Skutki stopy procentowej bliskiej zera, C.H. Beck, Warszawa.

Smith A.L., Becker T. (2015), Has forward guidance been effective?, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Economic Review, third quater, Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Cansas City.

Woodford M. (2012), Methods of Policy Accommodation at Interest-rate Lower Bound, Columbia University Working Paper.

Opublikowane

2019-06-30

Jak cytować

Werbowy, D. . (2019). Forward guidance as a tool of the European Central Bank’s monetary policy. Współczesna Gospodarka, 10(2 (33), 31–40. https://doi.org/10.26881/wg.2019.2.04